The sources behind the Godspeed decision wiki

Every source compiled into the wiki as of 28 September 2026, grouped by research tradition and ordered by year within each group. Each was read in full and turned into cited articles that point back to the page in the original.

107 sources25 books72 papers10 chapters and documentsspanning 1738–2024

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Normative decision theory and decision analysis

Expected utility, subjective probability, multi-attribute value, and the decision-analysis practice built on them.

1738
Bernoulli
Exposition of a new theory on the measurement of risk
Specimen theoriae novae, 1738; Sommer's translation in Econometrica, 1954
Paper
1944
von Neumann & Morgenstern
Theory of Games and Economic Behavior
60th-anniversary edition
Book
1953
Allais
Le comportement de l'homme rationnel devant le risque
Econometrica 21(4)
Paper
1954
Edwards
The theory of decision making
Psychological Bulletin
Paper
1954
Savage
The Foundations of Statistics
2nd revised edition, 1972
Book
1961
Ellsberg
Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms
Quarterly Journal of Economics; read from the RAND P-2173 preprint
Paper
1968
Raiffa
Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices under Uncertainty
Book
1976
Keeney & Raiffa
Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs
1993 Cambridge reissue
Book
1986
von Winterfeldt & Edwards
Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research
Book
1988
Bell, Raiffa & Tversky (eds.)
Decision Making: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Interactions
Edited volume, 29 chapters
Book
1988
Howard
Decision analysis: Practice and promise
Management Science 34(6)
Paper
1992
Keeney
Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking
Book

Bounded rationality and organizational decisions

Simon and March: satisficing, problem spaces, and how decisions happen inside organizations.

1947
Simon
Administrative Behavior
4th edition, 1997, with the author's commentaries
Book
1955
Simon
A behavioral model of rational choice
Quarterly Journal of Economics
Paper
1956
Simon
Rational choice and the structure of the environment
Psychological Review
Paper
1972
Newell & Simon
Human Problem Solving
Book
1976
Mintzberg et al.
The structure of “unstructured” decision processes
Administrative Science Quarterly
Paper
1994
March
A Primer on Decision Making: How Decisions Happen
Book

Clinical versus statistical judgment

Meehl's question, the lens model, and when expert judgment loses to simple formulas.

1954
Meehl
Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence
Book
1978
Einhorn & Hogarth
Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity
Psychological Review
Paper
1979
Dawes
The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making
American Psychologist
Paper
1989
Dawes, Faust & Meehl
Clinical versus actuarial judgment
Science; with Kleinmuntz's 1990 letter and the authors' reply
Paper
1996
Hammond
Human Judgment and Social Policy: Irreducible Uncertainty, Inevitable Error, Unavoidable Injustice
Book
2000
Grove et al.
Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis
Psychological Assessment 12(1)
Paper
2001
Hogarth
Educating Intuition
Book
2006
Ægisdóttir et al.
The meta-analysis of clinical judgment project
The Counseling Psychologist
Paper
2008
Karelaia & Hogarth
Determinants of linear judgment: A meta-analysis of lens model studies
Psychological Bulletin; read from the working paper
Paper
2015
Hogarth, Lejarraga & Soyer
The two settings of kind and wicked learning environments
Current Directions in Psychological Science
Paper

Constructed preferences and reasons

Preferences built at the moment of choice, reason-based choice, and adaptive strategy selection.

1977
Nisbett & Wilson
Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes
Psychological Review
Paper
1989
Simonson
Choice based on reasons: The case of attraction and compromise effects
Journal of Consumer Research
Paper
1993
Payne, Bettman & Johnson
The Adaptive Decision Maker
Book
1993
Shafir, Simonson & Tversky
Reason-based choice
Cognition
Paper
1995
Slovic
The construction of preference
American Psychologist
Paper
2006
Lichtenstein & Slovic (eds.)
The Construction of Preference
Edited volume
Book

Expertise, naturalistic decisions and forecasting

Recognition-primed decisions, the premortem, and what forecasting tournaments show about accuracy.

1998
Klein
Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions
Book
2001
Lipshitz, Klein, Orasanu & Salas
Taking stock of naturalistic decision making
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 14(5)
Paper
2005
Tetlock
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
2017 edition
Book
2007
Klein
Performing a project premortem
Harvard Business Review
Document
2009
Kahneman & Klein
Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree
American Psychologist
Paper
2014
Mellers et al.
Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament
Psychological Science
Paper
2015
Tetlock & Gardner
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Book

Ecological rationality and the heuristics debate

Gigerenzer's program, the exchange with Kahneman and Tversky, and nudging versus boosting.

1991
Gigerenzer
How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond “heuristics and biases”
European Review of Social Psychology
Paper
1995
Gigerenzer & Hoffrage
How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats
Psychological Review
Paper
1996
Gigerenzer
On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky
Psychological Review
Paper
1996
Kahneman & Tversky
On the reality of cognitive illusions
Psychological Review
Paper
1999
Gigerenzer, Todd & the ABC Research Group
Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart
Book
2017
Hertwig & Grüne-Yanoff
Nudging and boosting: Steering or empowering good decisions
Perspectives on Psychological Science
Paper

Heuristics and biases

Prospect theory, framing, hindsight, overconfidence, sunk cost, status quo, time discounting.

1974
Tversky & Kahneman
Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
Science
Paper
1975
Fischhoff
Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance
Paper
1975
Fischhoff & Beyth
“I knew it would happen”: Remembered probabilities of once-future things
Organizational Behavior and Human Performance
Paper
1976
Staw
Knee-deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action
Organizational Behavior and Human Performance
Paper
1977
Fischhoff, Slovic & Lichtenstein
Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance
Paper
1979
Kahneman & Tversky
Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk
Econometrica
Paper
1980
Koriat, Lichtenstein & Fischhoff
Reasons for confidence
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory 6(2)
Paper
1981
Tversky & Kahneman
The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice
Science
Paper
1984
Lord, Lepper & Preston
Considering the opposite: A corrective strategy for social judgment
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 47(6)
Paper
1985
Arkes & Blumer
The psychology of sunk cost
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Paper
1988
Baron & Hershey
Outcome bias in decision evaluation
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
Paper
1988
Samuelson & Zeckhauser
Status quo bias in decision making
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Paper
1991
Kahneman, Knetsch & Thaler
Anomalies: The endowment effect, loss aversion, and status quo bias
Journal of Economic Perspectives
Paper
1992
Tversky & Kahneman
Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Paper
1993
Kahneman & Lovallo
Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk taking
Management Science
Paper
1996
Loewenstein
Out of control: Visceral influences on behavior
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Paper
1999
Thaler
Mental accounting matters
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
Paper
2000
Stanovich & West
Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?
Behavioral and Brain Sciences
Paper
2002
Frederick, Loewenstein & O'Donoghue
Time discounting and time preference: A critical review
Journal of Economic Literature
Paper
2008
Moore & Healy
The trouble with overconfidence
Psychological Review
Paper
2011
Kahneman
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Book
2012
Sleesman et al.
Cleaning up the big muddy: A meta-analytic review of the determinants of escalation of commitment
Academy of Management Journal 55(3)
Paper

Methods for structuring and recording decisions

Wicked problems, IBIS and dialogue mapping, multicriteria aid, groups, commitment devices, noise, decision records.

1970
Kunz & Rittel
Issues as elements of information systems
Working paper 131, University of California, Berkeley; the IBIS method
Document
1973
Rittel & Webber
Dilemmas in a general theory of planning
Policy Sciences; the “wicked problems” paper
Paper
1985
Roy
Méthodologie multicritère d'aide à la décision
Read in the 1996 English translation, Multicriteria Methodology for Decision Aiding
Book
2004
Kerr & Tindale
Group performance and decision making
Annual Review of Psychology 55
Paper
2006
Conklin
Dialogue Mapping: Building Shared Understanding of Wicked Problems
Book
2010
Bryan, Karlan & Nelson
Commitment devices
Annual Review of Economics 2
Paper
2011
Nygard
Documenting architecture decisions
Cognitect blog; architecture decision records
Document
2017
Parrish (Farnam Street)
Decision journal
Farnam Street template, 2 pages
Document
2021
Kahneman, Sibony & Sunstein
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
Book

Practitioner and historical documents

Decision makers on their own practice, from Franklin and Condorcet to Munger, Bezos and Duke.

1772
Franklin
Letter to Joseph Priestley on “moral or prudential algebra”
Founders Online
Document
1785
Condorcet
Essai sur l'application de l'analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix
The jury theorem
Document
1995
Munger
The psychology of human misjudgment
Talk at Harvard, June 1995 (transcript)
Document
2016
Bezos
2015 Letter to Shareholders
Amazon, published April 2016; Type 1 and Type 2 decisions
Document
2018
Duke
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Book

Replication and contested findings

Replications and meta-analyses that retest the classic effects: loss aversion, nudges, choice overload, ego depletion, priming, dual process.

2001
Bendor, Moe & Shotts
Recycling the garbage can: An assessment of the research program
American Political Science Review 95(1)
Paper
2010
Scheibehenne, Greifeneder & Todd
Can there ever be too many options? A meta-analytic review of choice overload
Journal of Consumer Research
Paper
2011
Weinshall-Margel & Shapard
Overlooked factors in the analysis of parole decisions
PNAS (letter)
Paper
2013
Evans & Stanovich
Dual-process theories of higher cognition: Advancing the debate
Perspectives on Psychological Science 8(3)
Paper
2015
Chernev, Böckenholt & Goodman
Choice overload: A conceptual review and meta-analysis
Journal of Consumer Psychology
Paper
2015
Open Science Collaboration
Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science
Science
Paper
2016
Hagger et al.
A multilab preregistered replication of the ego-depletion effect
Perspectives on Psychological Science
Paper
2016
Wagenmakers et al.
Registered replication report: Strack, Martin & Stepper (1988)
Perspectives on Psychological Science; the facial-feedback effect
Paper
2017
Schimmack et al.
Reconstruction of a train wreck: How priming research went off the rails
Replicability-Index
Document
2018
Gal & Rucker
The loss of loss aversion: Will it loom larger than its gain?
Journal of Consumer Psychology
Paper
2018
Melnikoff & Bargh
The mythical number two
Trends in Cognitive Sciences
Paper
2018
Miller & Sanjurjo
Surprised by the hot hand fallacy? A truth in the law of small numbers
Econometrica
Paper
2018
Simonson & Kivetz
Bringing (contingent) loss aversion down to earth
Journal of Consumer Psychology 28(3)
Paper
2020
Mrkva et al.
Moderating loss aversion: Loss aversion has moderators, but reports of its death are greatly exaggerated
Journal of Consumer Psychology
Paper
2020
Ruggeri et al.
Replicating patterns of prospect theory for decision under risk
Nature Human Behaviour; 4,098 participants in 19 countries
Paper
2022
DellaVigna & Linos
RCTs to scale: Comprehensive evidence from two nudge units
Econometrica
Paper
2022
Maier et al.
No evidence for nudging after adjusting for publication bias
PNAS
Paper
2022
Mertens et al.
The effectiveness of nudging: A meta-analysis of choice architecture interventions across behavioral domains
PNAS
Paper
2022
Szaszi et al.
No reason to expect large and consistent effects of nudge interventions
PNAS
Paper
2023
De Neys
Advancing theorizing about fast-and-slow thinking
Behavioral and Brain Sciences
Paper
2024
Brown, Imai, Vieider & Camerer
Meta-analysis of empirical estimates of loss aversion
Journal of Economic Literature
Paper

Syntheses and debiasing

Field-level syntheses and the evidence on what reduces bias.

1981
Einhorn & Hogarth
Behavioral decision theory: Processes of judgment and choice
Annual Review of Psychology
Paper
2008
Baron
Thinking and Deciding
4th edition (the 5th, 2023, was not available)
Book
2015
Soll, Milkman & Payne
A user's guide to debiasing
Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, ch. 33
Chapter